This week, high pressure over the West Coast is expected to weaken, allowing two weak weather disturbances to propagate across Arizona. The first is expected Tuesday to Thursday, bringing mostly high clouds, breezes, and maybe some light rain showers on Thursday (Thanksgiving), but measurable rainfall is unlikely. The second disturbance will bring another round of clouds and light breezes on Saturday, but no precipitation is expected as most of the lifting will occur to the north of Arizona.
Thus, it looks like another relatively dry week is in store for the Prescott area this week. The long range forecasts continue to indicate that a wetter-than-normal winter is still more likely than not, based on ENSO (El Niño Southern Osclliation) indices. The sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific are warmer than normal, and weak El Niño conditions are expected to develop this coming winter. Keep in mind that not all El Niño winters are wetter than normal, but the majority of them are.
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program
Official National Weather Service forecast