For many years, I have written projections on what to look forward to in the market place in the new year. Here's what I'm predicting for 2014. Obviously, these are just my opinions - time will tell!
This is for my local market in Prescott, AZ, but this may be of help even to my national audience. On average, I see price increases of 5% to 10% locally. The main increase will be in most of the price ranges except for the very highest. It will include increases in the low to the mid high to the high; prices will rise more in the low end and less as we go up through the price ranges. Nationwide, I look at a very similar scenario in most markets, but, remember, there will always be exceptions.
Interest Rates & Midterm Elections
This one will be pretty simple and in my opinion rates will increase to the range of 5% to 5.5% as a high. The mid-term election will hold them down somewhat. After the election year, however, increases will go up to 6% and higher as we go forward in 2015.
This year we will see many more people qualify as their waiting period from going through a short sale or a foreclosure, will have been met, bringing those previous home owners back in the marketplace. There will also be more newlyweds than usual looking for housing because of more jobs.
A mixed bag. Many more jobs will be better than during the recession, but because of ObamaCare and other factors, many new hires will be more or less part time with 30 hours or less and very few benefits, if any. Many people will need two jobs and lenders and underwriters will not look at them as a secure one full time job.
The bad winter weather in most of the country will affect a pent up demand for the balance of 2014 for both resale and new homes because of the lack of new home building starts in the Plains, Midwest and Northeast plus other parts of the country. We may have an inventory problem; if not, it may be a perception of one in many areas and as I always say, many times perception becomes reality. We may also have a supply problem of some components used in home building when the rush of building finally starts. The high demand and potential material shortage may create a run up of prices for new homes.
As I said, a mixed bag, much of it depends on your area. I know that these articles are read all over the nation from Florida to Montana, so here is what to look for, no matter where you live: Supply – Demand – Jobs – Job Outlook – Local Economy past and future outlooks. Check your own area to try to determine if it's a good time to buy/sell or both.
Locally, in our Prescott, AZ area, we seem to be hitting on all cylinders (as in a car). I feel like it will be both a good year to buy or sell. I have some modest fears for 2015 and beyond, because of rising interest rates.
One Last Thing
I ran across a site last week on my computer that surprised me: I see I have Realtors and Financial Advisors from Florida to Montana posting my articles on their web sites. It seems like with adding up the nationwide reads, I have had in excess of 125,000* read over the past 2½ years. Thank you all! It is very humbling to this past farm boy, but I still am a no-tech redneck so please call me or email me with any ideas for future articles, no matter where you live. Thanks again millions of times to all of you. I hope these "Food For Thought Articles" do just that. Keep on posting.
A very special thank you to Lynne LaMaster, Owner and Publisher of Prescott eNews because without her, none of the above would have been possible. Again, Lynne, thanks millions.
Any questions you may have about buying or selling real estate, please feel free to call me.
Remember my favorite sayings, "Experience Isn't Expensive, It's Priceless!" and, "Selling A Home Is Easy, Doing It Right Is The Key!"
Lee Amble, Realtor/Consultant
National Realty Of Prescott
Lee's Cell: 928 533-4455
Jan's Cell: 928 533-4488
*Editor's note: These numbers do not include local readership.