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Fall Market Outlook And Beyond! What To Do Or Not!

31 August 2014
  Lee Amble

For the past 3 plus years, in my articles, I usually talked about buy, sell, or hold but this time, what I recommend will not be any of them. How could that be? Read on.

Do What You Want To Do:

If you want to sell, there is no need to wait unless you want to as prices are stabilizing and what you would gain or lose would be the same on your next buy. The same thing goes for the buyer, do it on your time. When you want to buy or not, do it at your own pace. During the past 10 years, we have seen radical swings in prices, up and down, and that momentum appears to be gone now in our local market in most cases. Higher priced homes seem to be done increasing in some cases.

I'm writing this article mainly looking at our local market of Prescott, Az. I know this is read by other nationwide markets, but with so many different markets, this may not be the same in your markets. I will attempt to show everyone some signs to look for in our market and other markets also.

Inventory

In the Prescott, Az. area, we are very low on good inventory in the market range of $100,000-$200,000, low to moderate from $200,000-$300,000, moderate range of $300,000-$400,000, and above that price, it seems very ample in most cases. There have been numerous listed prices reduced in the over $400,000 range, we are going into the slower fall-winter markets.

New Homes

Builders are doing a great job and are seemingly caught up to the needs in many cases. The Phoenix area is already talking about new homes being overbuilt in some areas. New builds are now affecting sales of resale homes and, in some cases, they are very competitive and are affecting prices of some resale homes---mainly needing to be reduced.

Interest Rates:

I feel rates will start going up in the last quarter of 2014 and continue through 2015 and beyond. No-one really knows how much or what effect it will have on the market; if any, it will have a negative effect. We could look at it one way as a positive. Seniors and savers have been subsidizing low home buying interest rates and could possibly have a loss on some of their savings they have worked years to accumulate. Is this really fair?

Market Reaction:

In some cases, buyers have been forced out of the market or are going to have to downsize, rethink their purchases or, in many cases, go farther out of town where land and lot prices are much lower. Many buyers may either continue to rent or become renters, mainly in the lower price ranges; again due to higher prices and lack of needed down payments because of poor paying jobs with less hours worked.

Jobs:

The job market in many areas is not as good as it looks. ObamaCare seems to have forced more part time jobs so companies do not have to furnish health insurance. This has taken a heavy toll on full time jobs. Many potential home buyers now have to have two part time lower paying jobs just to exist. Home lenders do not look at 2 part time jobs being as good as one, stable full time job. A true look at jobs and salaries are not what they appear to be. Just look at many of your own friends and neighbors.

Buying Seasons:

In Prescott, our peak buying season is passing us by and every area in the USA has different times when they should buy or sell, so to the buyer, always try to buy in a slower season as you will always have a better selection to pick from and a better negotiating price. In our area, buyers come on down! November, December, January, February and March are great buying times.

Recap:

In our local Prescott market, there is no need to wait or to hurry to buy or sell, just do it at your pace. Isn't that a good feeling for a change? When you know you are ready and find the right home, just do it! For home owners who are downsizing, sizing up, or moving into alternative living, it's much easier to do in this type of market. Again, do it at your pace! In my 34 years of selling in Prescott, we have now grown to a good four season selling market as we have a great year around living area. Four great seasons: spring, summer, fall and winter---all very livable and enjoyable. 

I like to call it Heaven on Earth!

Have a Happy and Safe Labor Day weekend. Those of us who have a good job are very fortunate. I hope the present and future will do well for you too!

Thoughts for the Day:

Use your stumbling blocks as stepping stones to something better.
Life's battles don't always go to the swiftest and strongest person, but sooner or later the one who wins, is a person who thinks she or he can.
And, remember, "Experience Isn't Expensive, It's Priceless!!"

Lee Amble, Realtor, Consultant
National Realty of Prescott
Lee's cell: 928 533-4455
Jan's cell: 928 533-4488
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